Will white-collar jobs disappear? + Do we need Hollywood anymore?
Elon vs. AI + Anime wins the streaming wars?
The Agenda:
Opinion
Will white-collar jobs disappear? [AI]
Do we need Hollywood anymore? [AI, Hollywood]
Will AI be regulated? [AI]
Elon vs. AI. [AI]
Anime wins the streaming wars? [Japan, Streaming]
Philippines’ Voltes V: Japan approves! [Philippines, Japan, IP]
Mexico: Super Mario #1 movie of all time. [Mexico, Japan, IP]
Xbox loses the console wars. [Gaming]
Zelda: 10 million people are willing to spend $70 in 3 days. [Gaming]
A snacking renaissance partly thanks to gaming. [B2C, Gaming]
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: Evolving the IP. [Hollywood, IP]
Taylor Swift dodged a crypto bullet. [Hollywood, Crypto]
Manga
Business Samurai #79: “Evil Minds Think Alike” [Coffee Distribution Arc #31]
Monday Motivation
Don't rely on a "Plan B". (Masahiro Sakurai, legendary game designer)
If your co-worker slept with your spouse/significant other, how would you react?
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Opinion
AI
Will white-collar jobs disappear? [AI]
The WSJ released an article with quite the provocative title: “The Disappearing White-Collar Job”. The article discusses how some experts believe that a significant amount of knowledge worker jobs are never coming back, thanks to AI. The article also discusses layers of management that may be cut - does that mean MBA-types are not immune to automation? Whereas, in what appears to be a stunning reversal of trends, the US Labor Department is actually projecting growth in blue-collar jobs. Meanwhile, professional jobs to see growth are software developer (I’m assuming as opposed to software programmer), operations manager, and registered nurse - two of the three are effectively management jobs, in my view. Does this mean a hollowing out of the fat middle?
I do wish the article discussed the booming cybersecurity industry, the same way I wish some articles about AI replacing art discussed the booming luxury industry, which I’ve talked about previously. I did a quick search, and, according to Cybercrime Magazine, as of February 2023 there are 3.5 million job vacancies in cybersecurity, 750k of which are in the US. Something to consider.
How to prepare for these massive shifts? An oped in the WSJ discusses US universities combining the traditional bachelor’s degree with “microcredentials” - specialized skills. To me this sounds like students will more be able to curate their own education. I think this is a good idea, because theoretically this means greater chances for individuals to truly differentiate themselves in the global labor force. Ah, another example of the possible curator economy into which we may be entering.
[Premiumization.]
Do we need Hollywood anymore? [AI, Hollywood]
I listen to/read about the Hollywood writers strike a lot, for obvious reasons. I don’t want to quibble with each and every thought piece I’ve engaged with, but, in my view, one major debate is how much consumers actually value storytelling written by human professionals, vs. substitutes such as influencer media and, of course, AI-written content.
Given trends like the revival of the box office, and the explosive growth and profitability of anime/manga driven by younger audiences (more on that below), I do believe there is room for human-scripted storytelling vs. influencer media. Per Deloitte, younger audiences consume media “via a personalized tapestry of immersive, social and vibrant experiences”. That means, in my view, younger audiences consume different media for different occasions. There is categorization and ranking. So, both scripted storytelling and influencer media can coexist.
Now, regarding AI. In my view:
Generally speaking, assuming no meaningful regulation, over the longer term, AI will hollow out the middle and set the bar higher for humans.
If you just want to write generic drivel, AI can do that easily. And people will watch generic drivel, or at the very least have it playing in the background. So, theoretically, in a bid to cut costs, right or wrong, streamers might look at more AI-generated work, curated by a single writer-producer. Gen AI is, of course, constrained by its data. So, assuming copyright issues are addressed, the data from which gen AI would draw would be things that have been done before. Which means the value-add of a human screenwriter is to write really good, original, stories. The bar is set higher.
The same goes for actors. Watch the video I shared previously. AI could replace many actors over the mid- to long-term. For example, in a similar situation to the single writer-producer above, there could be a single actor mo-capped for all characters in a show. Beyond that, actors would have to differentiate themselves, for example, through transcendental art that wows audiences specifically because a human is doing it. Think things like method acting (hey, Joker did well for Joaquin Phoenix) or impressive stunts (Jackie Chan). The bar is set higher.
And, let’s just be honest, if you just want to be famous for being famous - hey, nothing wrong with that, I’m not judging - you’re likely an influencer, and there are apps specifically made to reduce the friction to being famous. My my, we’ve advanced so much as a society - why, back in the day you had to release a sex tape to be famous! Although AI could take influencer jobs as well. So if you’re an influencer and you have to compete with AI, you’d probably have to do something that grabs people’s attention. Possibly something shameless. Like releasing a sex tape. The bar is set higher.
(Interesting that a potential hollowing out of Hollywood is similar to a potential hollowing out of the corporate world, as described earlier in this post.)
[Premiumization.]
Will AI be regulated? [AI]
Last week, OpenAI’s Sam Altman appeared before the US Congress to discuss the impact of AI on society. This is well-covered, but I’d like to point out a few things:
Altman said, “It’s important to understand that GPT-4 is a tool, not a creature… [A]nd it’s a tool that people have great control over.” Good. You know how I feel about the proclaimed “existential risks” of AI.
On the other hand, Altman is proposing “a new agency that licenses any effort above a certain scale of capabilities and could take that license away and ensure compliance with safety standards.” Some have pushed back against this, stating that it favors large tech companies over startups. Tech startups, by the way, that are currently grappling with a potential change in accounting rules that could wipe some of them out.
I thought Scott Galloway’s reaction to such proposed regulations was hilarious.
Elon vs. AI. [AI]
Elon Musk had an interview with CNBC last week, and he shared his thoughts about OpenAI. Musk also opined that the best advertisements will approach becoming entertainment content (maybe another stream for IP monetization, in my view), and… talked about psi-ops.
[Everything is moving closer to entertainment.]
Japan
Anime wins the streaming wars? [Japan, Streaming]
Even as streamers pivot their strategy toward profitability, and profitable Netflix is trimming spending, expanding into gaming (more on that below), releasing an ad tier, but facing backlash re: upcoming password crackdown, it sounds like niche anime streamer Crunchyroll, now owned by Sony, is doing well. Per The Hollywood Reporter, Crunchyroll is “solidly profitable” and is growing signficantly, led by a younger demographic. Importantly, in contrast to Netflix, Crunchyroll can monetize the IP on its streaming service across other media (cross platform!!!), and creators have access to performance data and back-end revenues. Then again, Crunchyroll is owned by a multinational conglomerate, and Netflix isn’t…
BTW, Netflix and the other Western streamers have been vying for anime IP, but read here for reasons why it’s not so easy.
[The importance of IP in the digital economy.]
Philippines’ Voltes V: Japan approves! [Philippines, Japan, IP]
So many Filipinos grew up watching the 1970’s super robot anime, Voltes V, including me! So it should come as no surprise that Philippine media company GMA got rights to the IP and produced a live-action version of it, which you can watch here. The good news is that the reaction of Japanese netizens looks to be largely positive, with some saying that the Philippine version of Voltes V should be imported back into Japan! Read comments from here, here, and here, and use Google Translate.
[Cultural globalization.]
Mexico: Super Mario #1 movie of all time. [Mexico, Japan, IP]
Details here, though I don’t know if the numbers are adjusted for inflation. Still, very impressive, as I did mention Mexico as the potential next big market for IP last week. Also worth noting that for SMB’s opening weekend in the US, the #1 audience demographic was Hispanic, at 40%!
[Cultural globalization.]
Gaming
Xbox loses the console wars. [Gaming]
Earlier this month, it was reported that Microsoft’s Xbox officially lost the console wars. One cited reason is the underperformance of Xbox-exclusive IP, for example, Halo. It’s interesting that this perceived underinvestment in Xbox’s exclusive IP comes at a time when both of its competitors, Sony and Nintendo, are investing heavily into their own exclusive IP and going cross platform with them, as I’ve talked about at length before. Meanwhile, Netflix continues its expansion into gaming by hiring a top Halo developer…
[The importance of IP in the digital economy.]
Zelda: 10 million people are willing to spend $70 in 3 days. [Gaming]
Speaking of platform-exclusive IPs, Nintendo launched The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, which sold over 10 million copies in three days, despite the hike in price to USD 70 (or equivalent, given purchasing power parity). It’s predecessor, The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, has current total sales of about 30 million units, meaning ToK sold over a third of that number in just three days! Meanwhile, Zelda producer Eiji Aonuma is interested in a Zelda movie…
[The importance of IP in the digital economy.]
A snacking renaissance partly thanks to gaming. [B2C, Gaming]
There’s a boom in the US snack industry (cookies, chips, etc… mmm…), and gaming is one reason for it. Really, are you surprised?
Hollywood
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: Evolving the IP. [Hollywood, IP]
SPOILERS!
I watched it last week, it was good but Dungeons & Dragons was better, not because of any weakness in the plot and characters - it’s just that there were too many characters for one movie, possibly to set up the new iteration of the IP.
Marvel is clearly evolving the Guardians IP for the next generation by adding kids to the cast, not unlike Thor. What’s interesting is the presence of not one, but two animal characters to the new Guardians team. I was wondering about that. Then, shortly after I watched the movie, Slidebean launched this video about how more young adults are having pets instead of kids, and the resulting boom in the pet industry. I guess that explains the new Guardians cast?
Taylor Swift dodged a crypto bullet. [Hollywood, Crypto]
She avoided sponsoring FTX because she was the only celeb who did due diligence.
Manga
Business Samurai: Business Strategy Manga
Latest episode of webcomic about businesses selling to consumers. Cross Platform’s own IP and multimedia franchise. You can read the complete story so far here.
The plot: The MASTER (マスター) corporation has hired a team of young and talented businesspeople from diverse backgrounds to guide its business strategy as it enters new industries. But is everything is as it seems? Hijinks and drama ensue as team CLARITY (明快さ) launches new businesses, while each member tries to make her and his way in the world!
The current story arc: Claurette, Lixue, Jiae, and Ryota are working to distribute Cafe Honesty's cold brew based on coffee beans... digested by a house cat. But now they've bumped up against competition with the Toriyaki company!
Episode #79: “Evil Minds Think Alike” [Coffee Distribution Arc #31]
Monday Motivation
Don't rely on a "Plan B". (Masahiro Sakurai, legendary game designer)
I’ve quoted Sakurai-sensei before and will continue to do so, and it’s because he has regular series about work ethic in his YouTube channel. Really great stuff!
Don’t spend your energy thinking of a backup. When you’re launching a project, all the best stuff has to go into Plan A. New ideas can be added in the process. Best face forward!
GO FOR IT! REACH YOUR GOAL!