Barbie DETHRONES Mario?! + Will Netflix outlast the strikes?
Ron Perlman threatens that motherf*cking studio exec.
The Agenda:
Opinion/Links
Barbie DETHRONES Mario?! [Hollywood, IP, B2C]
The “IP-ification” of prestige cinema (Oppenheimer). [Hollywood, IP]
Will Netflix outlast the strikes? [Hollywood, Streaming, AI]
Speaking of the strikes… [Hollywood]
China closes its doors to Hollywood? [Hollywood]
The Sound of Freedom as conservative films surge. [Hollywood]
“Silicon Valley’s entire business model is a scam.” [Tech Regulation]
Authors want AI to pay them. [Tech Regulation, AI]
New FTC guidelines may influence influencers. [Tech Regulation]
Manga US sales continue to grow. Why? [Japan, B2C]
Ghibli’s new film makes ¥ WITHOUT MARKETING. [Japan, B2C]
Korean content dominates Asia. [South Korea]
Will France get into IP? [France, IP]
Monday Motivation
Break the rules! (Ruth Handler, creator, Barbie, co-founder, Mattel)
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Opinion/Links
Hollywood
Barbie DETHRONES Mario?! [Hollywood, IP, B2C]
(SPOILERS!)
Yes, I watched Barbie for Cross Platform, and I also owe it to my ancestor to do so. Even though I wasn’t the target demo, I thought it was a good movie, and I don’t think it’s anti-men. But…
Story, social considerations:
Director Greta Gerwig had a lot to say in a 2 hr. toy commercial. While the tip of her spear is feminism, she also contends with power structures in general, with the film crisscrossing themes of gender, race, class, and even religion. While selling toys for a multinational conglomerate.
Who was this made for? Primarily, women middle-school age and up (market expansion!), secondarily, LGBTQ. And of course, Barbie superfans.
Why didn’t I find it anti-men? I’ve talked before promoting diversity without heavy-handedness. Given Gerwig’s direct and meta sensibilities, she ran the risk of being heavy-handed. The trick was to get her point across 1) without being mean-spirited, and 2) showing multiple POVs and nuance (the film calls out women, too).
The clever gender role reversals in the plot had me reflecting (“Oh, so that’s what it’s like from a female POV”, “Oh my goodness, I never saw Matchbox Twenty’s “Push” in that way.”) but also laughing (the Kens fighting, trying to woo the Barbies with guitar-playing, and -so true- talking about how great The Godfather is).
As Super Mario gave Mario’s accessory, Princess Peach, agency, Barbie gave Barbie’s accessory, Ken, agency. In fact, Ken might’ve gone thru the most interesting character arc in the whole movie.
As much as there were jibes against capitalism, Will Ferrell’s evil CEO is shown to genuinely respect the Barbie IP. Ken might’ve actually been the bigger antagonist than the CEO.
That being said, I think there are two plot points in particular that will rub some the wrong way: 1) America Ferrera’s (clever, casting someone who played Ugly Betty in a Barbie movie) speech, and 2) the Kens wanting to join the Barbieland supreme court.
Barbie is “mask-wearing IP”, like superheroes and Top Gun. Prior, Mattel had made the socially-intelligent and business-savvy move to evolve Barbie beyond “stereotypical Barbie”, expanding the product line by introducing diverse toys who were also named “Barbie” (well-reflected in the movie’s cast). Therefore, target demo can more easily project themselves onto the IP, which leads to $$$.
Why did Mattel decide to dive headfirst into a hornets’ nest?
I'm sure Mattel’s execs did the calculations. In an age where consumers increasingly want businesses to have a voice on social issues, Mattel is moving with the times. And even if Barbie turns off 50% of women, the other 50% become superfans of the IP, who Mattel can monetize cross-platform.
Because we’re dealing with IP - an intangible asset - here, Mattel skirts the problem plaguing Disney, which has a massive, physical, fixed asset stuck in conservative Florida, even as many of Disney’s staff and fans are on the left end of the political spectrum.
But will it make $$$?
Exciting US box office performance so far, even surpassing Super Mario’s debut and breaking other records. Once-in-a-lifetime accidental (?) marketing gold with Barbenheimer. Female-skewing demo that is diverse age-wise and race-wise but also non-children means Mattel is right on target. But Barbie could be relatively niche per above, and we need to see how it plays 1) going into week 2, and 2) to a global audience that may be more conservative and is not as historically beholden to the IP. Will it do Super Mario numbers or Little Mermaid numbers?
Other rev. streams: However, Mattel doesn’t get majority cut from box office. But, per above, we’re dealing with IP here. Licensing revenue, which almost entirely goes straight to Mattel’s bottom line.
[Evolving the IP; Masking.]
The “IP-ification” of prestige cinema (Oppenheimer). [Hollywood, IP]
The other half of Barbenheimer did well, too. The fact that Christopher Nolan reportedly accumulated his fanbase from The Dark Knight, and that Oppenheimer was marketed like a summer blockbuster, probably helped.
[The importance of IP in the digital economy.]
Will Netflix outlast the strikes? [Hollywood, Streaming, AI]
Netflix came out with quarterly numbers last week, with new subs surpassing Street expectations by a wide margin, but revenue below expectations. Its stock went down quite a bit. Why the selloff? It looks to be the issue of ARPU (average rev. per user), which currently looks lower than expectations. Netflix is getting rid of its US, Canada basic paid tier, while also 1) pushing paid sharing to is premium subs, and 2) promoting its new ad tier, which is higher ARPU, to non-premium subs. IMO, Netflix’s current strategy is to grow subs as much as it still can, and monetize them better - effectively improving its product mix. Management also mentioned potential M&A if the IP is good. Some issues are:
No significant contribution of ad tier yet.
Can it really expand into gaming, a super-competitive industry, in a meaningful way?
Given Netflix’s international footprint, some view the streamer as being relatively insulated from the US writers and actors strikes, but if the strikes continue into 2024, all of Hollywood may have quite a problem.
[The importance of IP in the digital economy.]
Speaking of the strikes… [Hollywood]
Actor Ron Perlman threatens that motherf*cking studio exec.
The AMPTP (streamers, studios) shared its POV, releasing its version of the negotiations with actors. You can look at the details and decide for yourself, but I want to highlight AMPTP’s argument that actors want to share in streaming platforms’ success without sharing in the risk. OTH, the issue of which shows are “successful” could actually be determined, given that streamers decide which shows to green-light, cancel, renew, etc.
Really interesting summary of Hollywood’s entire biz, which has always been to de-risk content, historically to no LT success, according to TV producer and writer Blake Masters. Per Masters, the goal of streaming is to be a utility that provides “good enough” content.
Given talk that streamers are supposedly worried about UGC (Tik Tok, YouTube, etc.), the utility argument above makes sense to me.
Moody’s est. of potential new contracts with writers, actors, are USD 450-600M/year, to be passed on to consumers, but will consumers pay? See Netflix’s ARPU challenge above.
There’s insider talk that the most resistant to sharing data with the strikers are Disney and Netflix. See Netflix’s ARPU challenge above.
Some say that Silicon Valley has brought an anti-labor culture to Hollywood.
Here’s an interesting take re: AI: “Leakage from the negotiations suggests both sides actually see dollar signs and are simply wrestling over control of the new tools.”
[Everything is competing with everything else.]
China closes its doors to Hollywood? [Hollywood]
Chinese audiences are preferring home-grown blockbusters now.
The Sound of Freedom as conservative films surge. [Hollywood]
Watch here to get up to speed. Good headline numbers. Interestingly, most buyers have been female, 45+, and 1/3 Hispanic.
[Cultural globalization.]
Tech Regulation
“Silicon Valley’s entire business model is a scam.” [Tech Regulation]
Interesting op-ed, also went after a school of thought from my dear alma mater. Is predatory pricing inherently part of the VC model?
Authors want AI to pay them. [Tech Regulation, AI]
Includes James Patterson, Margaret Atwood and Jonathan Franzen.
[The importance of IP in the digital economy.]
New FTC guidelines may influence influencers. [Tech Regulation]
Potentially putting ad disclosures on influencer videos themselves.
Japan, South Korea, France
Manga US sales continue to grow. Why? [Japan, B2C]
Increased locations are fueling N. American manga sales growth. “Every Target store now has at least a 4-foot long section for manga, with some having selections as large as 16-feet[.]”
Despite global growth, concerns about a possible “bust” in the cycle, publishers concerned about over-saturation and quality control. At least they’re aware.
[Cultural globalization.]
Ghibli’s new film makes ¥ WITH ZERO MARKETING. [Japan, B2C]
While Barbie went all out on marketing, Studio Ghibli went the exact opposite direction and released Miyazaki’s latest, The Boy and the Heron, with ZERO marketing. Turns out it was a good gamble.
[Premiumization; Artisanship at scale.]
Korean content dominates Asia. [South Korea]
50% 1H23 streaming viewership share in nine Asian countries.
[Cultural globalization.]
Will France get into IP? [France, IP]
France is looking to double its animation workforce. Interestingly, the focus appears to be medium-agnostic. So… cross-platform IP in the future, maybe?
[Everything is competing with everything else; The importance of IP in the digital economy.]
Monday Motivation
Break the rules! (Ruth Handler, creator, Barbie, co-founder, Mattel)
Ruth Handler defied convention not once, not twice, but thrice. Importantly, she had the courage to bet the entire company on her insights (marketing year-round directly to children, etc.). I think this is so important as an entrepreneur. It’s one thing to innovate, it’s another thing to bet everything on it.
GO FOR IT! REACH YOUR GOAL!